Predicting the Predictions
I was never any good at predictions. I remember predicting that slot players would never abandon their coins for ticket-in/ticket-out, because getting your mitts filthy plugging coins into a machine was part of the slot experience. (I think it was right after I bought stock in Blockbuster Video.)
It’s why I never bet sports. I don’t have time to exhaustively study game plans, offensive matchups or injury reports prior to games, and even if the experts have done that for me, I know my luck. I’m sure whatever team I bet on will have every key player slip on turf and break a knee the day before the game.
Or, I’ll be inclined to bet on my hometown Pittsburgh teams, which I did a couple of times. They lost. Now, I feel if I bet on them, it’s the kiss of death to their chances. Not that I’m superstitious.
I recognize, of course, that millions of people love to bet on sports now that the activity is legal. Sports broadcasts are sponsored by DraftKings and FanDuel. They even put “parlay” boxes at the bottom of the screen during broadcasts to show you the “plus” and “minus” odds on prop bets, like whether or not Aaron Rodgers will develop rheumatoid arthritis by the fourth quarter. (That’s -200.)
Well, I just read that news networks CNN and CNBC have announced partnerships with the online prediction market Kalshi (motto: “We’re not gambling. Bet on it.”).
Kalshi, of course, is the world’s largest prediction market, having created and established the entire prediction market industry. Users can trade on real-world events to predict outcomes that have real-time market impact, such as economic indicators, cultural moments and even elections.
Does this mean Jake Tapper and Anderson Cooper are going to interrupt broadcasts to go over odds on a congressional election, or when the polar ice cap will melt?
“We’ll come back to the peace negotiations in Gaza. But first, today’s parlay—you can combine wagers on when rising sea levels will make Arkansas a coastal state, when Prince Harry will drop his Duke of Sussex title, and when it will be revealed that Keith Richards is actually Dick Van Dyke’s father.”
“Enough about this morning’s Cabinet meeting. Let’s look at the odds on when the world will end. Of course, if you guess correctly, good luck collecting your winnings.”
OK, that’s enough of that. Moving on, we now know where the casinos will be in New York City. The winners of New York’s downstate casino competition are Steve Cohen’s Metropolitan Park, Resorts World New York City and Bally’s Golf Links at Ferry Point.
That’s two casinos in Queens and one in the Bronx.
OK, it wasn’t any big news. Last year, we were talking about 11 potential bids for the three available licenses. Then, one by one, nearly everyone pulled out of the competition, leaving three applicants for the three licenses. It didn’t involve any big research efforts on the part of New York’s Gaming Facilities Location Board to come up with the three licensees.
And though at press time we were still waiting on the year-end license decision from the New York State Gaming Commission, which has the final word on who will get the licenses, it’s kind of a no-brainer at this point.
Hey, even I can predict it. It may be the first prediction I ever get right.
That is, assuming they still want casinos in New York City. Resorts World can be up and running with a full-blown casino by mid-2026, since parent company Genting doesn’t have to build from the ground up. The other two are predicting, umm… 2030, for crying out loud. And the way this whole process has played out, I wouldn’t be surprised if those opening dates get pushed into the next millennium.
Another wager for Kalshi: Will all three New York casinos be up and running before Frank Legato croaks? I’ll turn 74 in 2030, God willing and the creek don’t rise, so if they get delayed another five years, or 10, or more, who’s to say?
Hey, Cohen’s casino is going to be adjacent to the New York Mets’ Citi Field ballpark. I’d like to walk to a craps table after a Mets game at least once, while I can still walk.
That’s assuming I even want to go to a Mets game. Well, maybe they’ll play the Pirates. And maybe by 2030, the Pirates will actually be good.
I’ll bet I can get really good odds from Kalshi on that one. I’m guessing +20,000.
Nah, I don’t bet on Pittsburgh teams. It will jinx them. Not that I’m superstitious.
