Poll: Most Americans Liken Prediction Markets to Gambling
A new poll from Ipsos and the American Institute for Boys and Men shows that a majority of Americans believe prediction markets are more like gambling than investing. Sixty-one percent said the activity is “closer to gambling.” Nearly 80 percent said it’s either closer to gambling or a mix of investing and gambling. The poll also showed:
• Only 21 percent of those polled said they are very or somewhat familiar with prediction markets, versus 35 percent who say the same about online sports betting (OSB). Even among men aged 18–24, familiarity with prediction markets is still below one-third (29 percent).
• Prediction market usage does not meaningfully differ between OSB and non-OSB states, suggesting the customer base does not entirely overlap with that for online sports betting.
• Just 4 percent of Americans—and 7 percent of young men—believe prediction markets are “good for society.”
A concurrent poll from Data for Progress showed respondents were highly concerned about wagers on acts of terrorism or political assassinations, with 82 percent and 78 percent of voters, respectively, expressing alarm.
Voters are also concerned about markets that let users bet on election results (70 percent concerned) and markets covering events where a person has complete control of the outcome (69 percent concerned).
Europe Watch: Market Expands, Regs Tighten
Data from the 2026 World Metrics Gambling Report shows that Europe’s vast gambling market has grown rapidly since 2022, even as governments enact stronger regulations and protections.
The report projects market value will reach €146.8 billion by next year, growing at a CAGR of 5.3 percent from 2022 to 2027. The European online gambling market is expected to reach €75.2 billion this year, with 6.1 percent CAGR from 2021-26. Also according to the report:
In 2022, the U.K. gambling market was valued at £14.3 billion, the largest in Europe.
18 percent of European adults gambled at least once a month in 2022, per Eurostat.
The average European gambler spends €1,240 annually on gambling.
Women in Europe account for 42 percent of lottery players; men make up 58 percent.
The data also shows that the top five European gambling operators (bet365, Unibet, 888 Holdings, Flutter Entertainment, GVC Holdings) control 42 percent of the market. Flutter, the parent of Paddy Power, is the largest, with €8.2 billion in revenue (2022). In the same year, Unibet generated €2.1 billion in revenue, with 65 percent from online sports betting.
