UBS trims Macau EBITDA forecast for 2026

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Macau operators face a modest earnings reset as UBS trims its 2026 EBITDA estimate by about 2%. They cite higher operating costs observed in the fourth quarter of 2025 that may persist into the new year. 

Macau as EBITDA cuts back

Key Takeaways:

  • UBS reduces 2026 EBITDA estimates by 2% due to higher operating costs
  • Sector expected to see approximately 5% GGR growth, driven by premium segments
  • Focus on smarter reinvestment and high-yield offerings to sustain margins and revenue growth

According to Asia Gaming Brief, the bank nonetheless expects gross gaming revenue to rise roughly 5% in 2026. Growth will be concentrated in premium segments and the first half of the year. This is supported by new suite inventory, targeted marketing and steadier competitive dynamics. 

According to UBS, the market is in a premiumised demand environment, a backdrop that should allow operators to protect returns. This is while shifting from heavy capex to smarter reinvestment.

UBS’s reassessment follows Q4 2025 results showing industry-wide cost increases; the brokerage expects H1 2026 GGR to expand faster on easier year-ago comparisons before growth moderates in H2. The projections are still below 2019 levels.

Analysts project luck-adjusted sectorwide EBITDA to climb about 6% year-on-year in 2026. This comes as operators tighten cost control and prioritise high-yielding suites over broad mass-market expansion.

The outlook favours operators with strong premium positioning and upcoming room openings. This should capture higher-value play without igniting a spending race.