Prediction Markets Toothless for Now
Data suggests that online sports betting growth remains unaffected by prediction markets, according to a November report from Jefferies Equity Research.
Kalshi’s volumes fell for the first time in NFL Week 6. While volumes then improved, the magnitude of growth reduced significantly and closely resembled that of New York’s weekly OSB handle. Despite a presence in all 50 U.S. states and subsequent launches in 140-plus other countries, Kalshi’s momentum was reduced to that of a single “mature” OSB state now in its fourth year of legalization.
Furthermore, state-by-state web traffic data showed that prediction market activity skewed to unregulated OSB states. Unregulated California and regulated New York were previously two similarly sized states for Kalshi. However, California’s relative share of Kalshi traffic has grown substantially (from 13 percent to 17 percent from August to November) to become the single largest state, while the New York share fell from 14 percent to 11 percent during the same period.
