Macau Gross Gaming Revenue Forecast Challenged by Stronger Demand

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Macau’s gross gaming revenue forecast for 2026 increasingly looks cautious as industry analysts point to stronger near-term demand than the government assumed.

Macau at night, as their Gross Gaming Revenue Forecast is deemed too conservative

Key Takeaways:

  • Industry analysts see stronger near-term demand than government estimates
  • High-end tourism and VIP activity support upward revision for 2026
  • Structural constraints may limit per-visitor revenue growth despite positive trends

According to Inside Asian Gaming, CreditSights, part of Fitch Solutions, described the official MOP$236 billion (US$29.4 billion) Gross Gaming Revenue forecast as “overly conservative,” noting that FY25 GGR reached MOP$247.4 billion (US$30.9 billion), above the government’s revised figure.

Industry data indicate robust VIP activity and a generally healthy start to 2026 that could lift GGR above the budget baseline.

Several sell‑side houses have raised their outlooks, reflecting expanding high-end tourism and reinvestment by operators. 

UBS upgraded its 2026 view on solid premium interest and projects meaningful mass‑market growth versus 2019 levels, while Jefferies models a higher GGR for 2026 driven by stronger Cotai performance and targeted premium‑mass offerings.

Government and tourism forecasts also point to continued visitor growth, which should support revenue upside if spending patterns hold. 

Gross Gaming Revenue Forecast Meets Structural Limits

But structural constraints temper upside: average GGR per visitor has weakened and further gains per visitor will be harder to achieve as arrivals from wealthier Chinese regions have largely recovered. 

CreditSights expects low‑to‑mid‑single‑digit full‑year GGR growth for 2026 and warns per‑visitor yields may struggle. BMI analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey stated: “We expect the healthy demand trends as witnessed in 2H25, particularly from the VIP segment, to carry into early 2026 and an easy year-on-year comp should support healthy growth to start the year”, as per GGR Asia.