JP Morgan Projects Macau’s Gross Gaming Revenue to Grow 5-6% in 2026 

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JP Morgan’s analysts project Macau’s gross gaming revenue will rise 5-6% in 2026, driven by continued strength in the mass and slot segments, according to Asia Gaming Brief.

Key Takeaways:

  • JP Morgan forecasts Macau’s GGR to rise 5-6% in 2026
  • Mass and slot segments drive growth despite VIP revenue softening
  • Industry profit expected to outpace top-line gains, signaling recovery momentum
An infograph detailing Macau's Gross Gaminf Revenue prediction in 2026
Infograph of Macau’s GGR 2026 Predictions

Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian expect mass and slot GGR to grow 7-8% while VIP declines about 5%, and they forecast industry profit expansion of 6-7%, modestly outpacing top-line gains.

Earnings Growth Seen Outpacing Gross Gaming Revenue in 2026

The predictions follow a stronger-than-anticipated 2025 in which full-year GGR climbed to MOP247.4 billion and December alone reached MOP20.9 billion, about 91% of pre-pandemic levels, confirming an accelerated recovery after a slow start to the year.

The outlook implies improving earnings flow-through after EBITDA lagged gross gaming revenue in 2025, and aligns with other sell-side observers that point to sustained visitor momentum and mass-segment resilience into 2026.

“We forecast the industry profit growth (+6-7%) to finally – albeit modestly – outpace top-line growth (+5-6%) in 2026E,” the JP Morgan analysts wrote. 

“Even with likely moderating GGR, we see profit momentum sustaining, if not accelerating, in 2026E.”