American Gaming Association Releases Outlook

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The American Gaming Association (AGA)’s latest Gaming Industry Outlook has revealed that gaming executives have expressed an optimistic perspective regarding the future conditions of the industry, as key performance indicators show continued improvement. However, emerging risks—particularly from prediction market platforms offering sports event contracts—are increasingly shaping industry concerns, according to the survey.

The Gaming Conditions Index (GCI) shows real economic activity—measured across gaming revenue, employment, wages, executive sentiment, and casino hotel event activity—grew 1.5 per cent year-over-year, reflecting sustained confidence and momentum in the industry.

Bill Miller, AGA president and CEO, said, “The legal state- and tribal-regulated gaming industry continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in a dynamic economic environment.

“Operators are focused on investing in innovation and delivering world-class entertainment, while also navigating an evolving competitive and regulatory landscape.”

Key findings include:

  • More than 60 percent of executives expect increased capital investment, higher revenues, and stronger balance sheets over the next six to 12 months.
  • Executive sentiment reached its highest level since Q3 2022, with a 21.4 percent net positive outlook across key business indicators.
  • 62 percent of executives plan to increase capital investments over the next six to 12 months, while promotional activity is expected to decline for the second consecutive survey.

Despite strong fundamentals, prediction markets offering sports event contracts have emerged as a leading concern, with 81 percent of executives identifying them as a “very significant” risk to the regulated gaming industry.

“Illegal sports betting through sports event contracts is increasingly encroaching on legal, state- and tribal-regulated operators,” said Miller. “It’s clear the legal, regulated industry views this as a threat, and will continue to fight back and protect the integrity of our industry.”

Executives also cited several additional evolving risks impacting operations:

  • Inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical risk continue to be major factors limiting operations, while federal regulatory concerns increased sharply.
  • 54 percent of respondents cite employee wages as the top expense pressure, followed by tax and regulatory policy changes.
  • 42 percent pointed to competition from new forms of gaming (up from 25 percent in Q3 2025).