Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear and House leaders say they will push for casino legislation even if it doesn’t set aside casino licenses for the state’s beleaguered racetracks. But that plan could very well mean the bill is dead on arrival in the Republican-ruled House.

“I want to be very clear that the horse industry is a very important part of this whole process,” Beshear said. “They’re part of the reason I am pushing so strongly to get an amendment like this on the ballot.”

Casinos cannot be made legal in Kentucky without an amendment to the state constitution; Beshear had proposed 12 casinos in all for the state, with up to seven licenses up for bid by the tracks.

Lawmakers redrew that plan, scaling back to nine casinos, with up to five licenses available for the racetracks. But the bill that will go to the House floor for a vote would allow open competition for all nine licenses, making the horse industry fear that the tracks—in dire need of an infusion of funds—will get shut out of the casino action, and will be made even less competitive by free-standing casinos.

House Speaker Pro Tem Larry Clark says horse industry support will make or break this deal.

“If the industry is not satisfied in some way, no version of the bill will pass,” Clark predicted. “I think they have that much influence on the vote count. I think you’ve got to get at least 10 Republicans, and maybe 12, to get to 60 (votes, enough for passage).”

Republican representative and horse owner David Osborne also is concerned about the current version. “To take something that was motivated by helping the industry and turning it into something that can be detrimental to the industry is a little beyond me,” he said.

Democrat Ruth Ann Palumbo planned to support the bill providing it includes provisions for racetrack licenses.

“If it doesn’t, I’ve got a problem with that,” she told the Herald-Leader.

Banking on reassurances from Beshear, the Kentucky Equine Education Project has offered reluctant support for the bill.

House Speaker Jody Richards, whose version of the bill excludes a guarantee for racinos, said, “I’m optimistic. I don’t know if we can get the votes or not, but we’re certainly going to try, going to put on the full-court press.”